Buying Votes in Arkansas With Our Money

Intrade contract for Blanche Lincoln to win, odds now at 5.5%, down from 70% a year ago (click to enlarge):

From today's Wall Street Journal:

"Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln is down 20 points in the polls, but the Democrat is apparently going to go down swinging—with $1.5 billion of your money. She is the spending problem, in profile.

Last year heavy rain damaged cotton and rice crops across the South. The 2008 farm bill, passed by a Democratic Congress, created the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program (SURE) to aid farmers hit by such weather-related disasters. The admirable intent was to stop farm-state Senators from looting the Treasury after every early frost or the like. To qualify for SURE funds, farmers are now required to buy crop insurance (federally subsidized to the tune of about $6 billion a year) and to have lost more than 30% of their crop value.

Mrs. Lincoln wants to pull an end run around this law and make Arkansas farmers eligible for retroactive taxpayer payments. The payments would be made even if the recipients didn't buy crop insurance and even if their damages were as little as 5%. Most small businesses in America suffered far more than a 5% fall in revenues during the recession, but few are getting six-figure handouts from Uncle Sam. Rice and cotton prices have recovered nicely this year in any event.

Nearly 200 Arkansas farms and 100 Louisiana farms will get a check for $100,000 or more, and the 10% richest farmers will get almost two-thirds of the money. One of the few federal programs the Obama administration has said it wants to eliminate is farm subsidies to wealthy farmers -- unless, apparently, the money goes to the state of an endangered Democratic Senator."

Thanks to Bob Wright.

Markets in Everything: Fantasy Sports Insurance

Now available for the 2010 NFL season - disability insurance for fantasy players. 

Featured last year on CD. 

Weekly Intermodal Rail Volume Sets 2010 Record

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Aug. 26, 2010 – "The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported rail intermodal volume on U.S. railroads for the week ending Aug. 21, 2010 set a new 2010 record for the second consecutive week, with 236,404 total trailers and containers (see top chart), up 22.4 percent from the same week in 2009 (see bottom chart), and up 2.6 percent compared with 2008. Weekly container volume, a subset of intermodal, was the highest on record, also for the second consecutive week, up 24.2 percent compared with the same week in 2009, and up 11.5 percent with the same week in 2008. Trailer volume, the other subset of intermodal, rose 12.4 percent last week compared with the same week in 2009, but fell 30.5 percent compared with 2008.

Carload traffic continued moderate weekly gains, with U.S. railroads originating 296,634 carloads for the week (see top chart), up 6.2 percent compared with the same week in 2009 (see top chart), but down 11 percent from the same week in 2008."

Bottom Line: As I reported last week, Warren Buffett's favorite economic indicator continued to show signs of improvement again in this week's report from the AAR on rail traffic. Based on the volume of raw materials, natural resources, lumber, coal, grains, chemicals, metals, motor vehicles and paper products moving around the country by rail, the economic picture continues to get a little brighter almost every week.

The Case for Optimism and 20 Charts to Prove It

From today's Wall Street Journal article "The Case for Optimism" by Ross Devol, executive director of economic research at the Milken Institute:

"There's a point at which pessimism becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy, scaring businesses away from investing or hiring. The dark tone of today's discourse is at risk of doing just that.

The Milken Institute's new study, "From Recession to Recovery: Analyzing America's Return to Growth" is based on extensive and dispassionate econometric analysis. It concludes that the U.S. economy remains more flexible and resilient—and has more underlying momentum—than is generally acknowledged. In fact, our projections show cause for measured optimism: A return to modest but sustainable growth is close at hand.

America's businesses are capable of navigating around policy uncertainty and the twists and turns of a volatile global economy. While slow private-sector job growth is to be expected in the early stages of a recovery, the U.S. should add 1.5 million jobs in 2010, 3.1 million in 2011, and 2.6 million in 2012. That will translate into real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2010, 3.7% in 2011, and 3.8% in 2012.

In this pessimistic climate, this forecast will likely be considered contrarian. So why is our economic outlook more sanguine than the current consensus? For one, robust (albeit moderating) economic growth in developing countries, particularly in Asia, will provide support for U.S. exports. Look no further than Caterpillar, which reported a doubling of its earnings in the second quarter of 2010 and whose product line is sold out for the rest of the year."

Read the rest of the article here.

See related excellent post today from Scott Grannis: "20 Bullish Charts."

More on Global Shipping Boom. What Double-Dip?

1. "Georgia's Port of Savannah reported the busiest month for container shipments in its history in July, with 251,126 20-foot equivalent units moving through the port in an accelerating shipping recovery. The 20.7 percent year-to-year increase marked the eighth straight month of double-digit growth in volume at the Georgia Ports Authority’s Savannah terminals."

2. "Container volume at the Port of Charleston increased 26 percent in July over the same month last year, giving the port its strongest month since October 2008."

Truck Tonnage Index Increases for 8th Month

ARLINGTON, VA — "The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.5% in July, although June’s reduction was revised from 1.4% to 1.6%. The latest improvement raised the SA index from 108.3 (2000=100) in June to 110 in July.  Compared with July 2009, SA tonnage climbed 7.4%, which matched June’s increase and was the eighth consecutive year-over-year gain (see chart above). Year-to-date, tonnage is up 6.7% compared with the same period in 2009.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that July’s data didn’t change his outlook for subdued tonnage growth in the months ahead, stating, “The economy is slowing and truck freight tonnage has essentially gone sideways since April 2010.” Nevertheless, Costello believes that tonnage will post moderate gains, on average, for the second half of the year. “After accounting for the reduction in supply over the last few years, even small gains in tonnage will have a larger impact on the industry than in past.”

MP: Compared to last year, the July index this year is up by 7.4% but down by 5.3% compared to the index level of 116.2 in July 2008.  However, in July 2007 before the recession officially started, the ATA's Truck Tonnage Index was just slightly higher, at 110.9, than the index reading last month.  

International Air Travel Shows Continuing Strength in July; Volumes are Above Pre-Recession Levels

Updated Graph (back to 2007)

Sydney - "The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced international scheduled traffic statistics for July which showed continued strengthening of demand for both passenger and cargo traffic. Compared to July 2009, international passenger demand was up 9.2% while international scheduled freight traffic showed a 22.7% improvement (see chart above).

These year-on-year comparisons for July were less than the June growth data showing 11.6% and 26.6% increases for passenger and cargo traffic, respectively. The apparent slowdown was entirely due to the fact that by July 2009 traffic was already starting to recover. After adjusting for seasonality, the improvement in demand was faster month-to-month in July than it was in June."

Other highlights include:

1. July global passenger traffic was 3% higher than the pre-crisis levels of early 2008.

2. July global cargo demand was 4% higher than pre-crisis levels in early 2008.

3. Year-to-date global freight volume is 27.5% higher than 2009. 

4. During the second half of 2009, demand was rebounding at an annualized rate of 12% for passenger and 28% for cargo. In the year to July, the annualized growth rates had dropped to 8% for passenger and 17% for air freight. However, this is still considerably above the industry’s traditional 6% growth trend.

MP: International air travel (passenger and freight volumes) are both above the pre-crisis levels in early 2008, and the annualized growth rates (8% for passengers and 17% for freight) of 6%.