Saturday, July 24, 2010

How Texas Avoided the Great Recession and Real Estate Bubble: Market-Oriented Land Use Policies

From the article "How Texas Avoided the Great Recession":

"One reason that Texas did so well is that it fully escaped the “housing bubble” that did so much damage in California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada and other states (see chart above). One key factor was the state’s liberal, market oriented land use policies. This served to help keep the price of land low while profligate lending increased demand. More importantly, still sufficient new housing was built, and affordably. By contrast, places with highly restrictive land use policies (California, Florida and other places, saw prices rise to unprecedented heights), making it impossible for builders to supply sufficient new housing at affordable prices.

Speculation is often blamed as having contributed to the higher house prices that developed in California and Florida. This is correct. Moreover, with some of the strongest demand in the United States, Texas would seem to have been a candidate for rampant speculation. After all, it happened back in the 1970s when a huge oversupply of housing, industrial, retail and office space collapsed in the face of falling energy prices.

Yet the speculators were not drawn to the metropolitan areas of Texas. This is because speculators or "flippers" are not drawn by plenty, but by perceived scarcity. In housing, a sure road to scarcity is to limit the supply of buildable land by outlawing development on much that might otherwise be available.

However, the speculators did not miss California and Florida. Nor did they miss Las Vegas or Phoenix, where the price of land for new housing rose between five and 10 times as the housing bubble developed. Despite their near limitless expanse of land, much of it was off limits to building, and the exorbitant price increases were thus to be expected."

MP: The graph above shows that Texas never had a real estate bubble like those in California, Florida, Arizona or Nevada.  Consequently, Texas never had the real estate crash like in the other states.  This article presents an interesting perspective about how restrictive land use policies contributed to the real estate bubbles around the country, and how Texas may have escaped the Great Recession at least partly due to more liberal land use policies. 

HT: Romell Nandi

Sen. John Kerry Skips Town on Sails Tax

Boston Herald -- "Sen. John Kerry, who has repeatedly voted to raise taxes while in Congress, dodged a whopping six-figure state tax bill on his new multimillion-dollar yacht by mooring her in Newport, Rhode Island, instead of in Nantucket, MA, where the senator summers. Cash-strapped Massachusetts still collects a 6.25% sales tax and an annual excise tax on yachts. Sources say Isabel sold for something in the neighborhood of $7 million, meaning Kerry saved approximately $437,500 in sales tax and an annual excise tax of about $70,000."

HT: Matt B.

Where the Jobs Are: The Top 25 Counties in U.S.

From CNN Money, note that 5 out of the top 7 counties are in one state. 

HT: Romell Nandi

Friday, July 23, 2010

Markets in Everything: The $35 Computer

CS Monitor -- "It looks like an iPad, only it's 1/14th the cost: India has unveiled the prototype of a $35 basic touchscreen tablet aimed at students, which it hopes to bring into production by 2011.

If the Indian government can find a manufacturer, the Linux operating system-based computer would be the latest in a string of "world's cheapest" innovations to hit the market out of India, which is home to the 100,000 rupee ($2,127) compact Nano car, the 749 rupees ($16) water purifier and the $2,000 open-heart surgery."

HT: Joy Pavelski

FL Home Sales Increase 22nd Month Year-to-Year, Median Prices Up for Fourth Straight Month

ORLANDO, FL -– Sales of existing homes in Florida rose in June, marking 22 consecutive months that sales activity has increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released yesterday by the Florida Realtors.  Other highlights of the report include:

1. A total of 18,038 single-family existing homes sold statewide last month compared to 15,732 homes last year (see chart above). 

2. June’s statewide existing home sales increased 7.7% over statewide sales activity in May of 16,748 homes.

3. June's statewide existing-home median price of $143,400 was 2.1% higher than May’s statewide existing-home median price of $140,400, marking the fourth consecutive month that Florida's median home price has increased over the previous month.

MP: This almost seems like there might actually be something resembling a real estate recovery going on in Florida - 22 straight months of sales gains, and four consecutive months of increasing median home prices?

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Bouillabaisse

1. Family companies represent 60% of the nation's employment and almost 80% of all new jobs. Family businesses control roughly 50% of the country's GDP and some 35% of the Fortune 500 are family businesses.

2. There is a real hunger in consumers for customized, personalized products, and a new wave of entrepreneur is capitalizing on this trend to bring "customization to commerce" for chocolate, men’s dress shirts, and a whole lot more.

3. Maywood, a city in California now outsources everything.  Sky hasn't fallen.

4. Another California city, Bell (population of 38,000), one of the poorest municipalities in Los Angeles County, is paying its city manager an annual salary of $800,000 and its police chief is making $457,000 per year. Outsourcing anyone?

5. Books sold on the Kindle are now outpacing the hardcover books Amazon sells. In the past month, for every 100 hardcover books sold, there have been 180 Kindle books sold through Amazon.

6. Wi-Fi service is now offered on more than one-third of the nation's passenger planes.

Rail Traffic Continues to Post Gains vs. Last Year

The Association of American Railroads released its weekly update today on rail traffic through last week, reporting that rail activity continues to show improvements compared to the same weeks last year.  Highlights include:

1. U.S. railroads originated 282,199 carloads for the week ending July 17, 2010, up 5.5% compared with the same week in 2009, but down 13.8% from pre-recession levels in 2008.

2. Intermodal traffic totaled 227,661 trailers and containers, up 20.1% from the same week a year ago and down only 2.5% compared with 2008. Compared with the same week in 2009, container volume increased 22.1% and trailer volume rose 10%. Compared with the same week in 2008, container volume increased 5.6% and trailer volume dropped 32.5%.

3. For the first 28 weeks of 2010, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 7,874,125 carloads, up 7.3% from 2009, but down 13.2% from 2008, and 5,855,507 trailers or containers, up 13.1% from 2009, but down 6.4% from 2008.

4. Combined North American rail volume for the first 28 weeks of 2010 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 10,278,759 carloads, up 10.3% from last year, and 7,319,184 trailers and containers, up 13.8% from last year.

MP: Overall, this was a fairly positive report, despite the AAR's headline "Weekly Rail Traffic Continues to Reflect Sluggish Economy."  Compared to the same week last year, both carload and intermodal volumes were up, by 5.5% and 20.1% respectively.  The graph above displays 4-week moving average growth rates for both series (to smooth out the weekly fluctuations), and shows ongoing weekly improvements in rail traffic compared to last year, especially for intermodal shipping.  Intermodal traffic volume has registered year-to-year gains for 30 straight weeks, starting late last December; and the last 20 weeks have all been double-digit gains.